The chemical industry is one of the important pillar industries of the national economy, covering a wide range of fields from basic chemicals to fine chemical products. With the rapid development of emerging economies, the demand for basic chemicals and high-performance materials continues to grow, especially in areas such as infrastructure construction, automobile manufacturing, and electronic products.

The increasing awareness of environmental protection has promoted the development of green chemical technology, urging enterprises to develop more environmentally friendly and sustainable production processes and products, such as degradable plastics and bio-based chemicals.

I. Current Market Development: The Pains of Transformation from "Scale Expansion" to "Value Reconstruction"

In 2025, under the dual pressures of the "dual carbon" goal (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) and the restructuring of the global industrial chain, China's chemical industry is undergoing a profound transformation centered on technological upgrading, green transformation, and structural optimization. Although the total output value of the industry has exceeded 19 trillion yuan, accounting for 17.8% of the global market share, the contradiction between overcapacity in traditional bulk chemicals and insufficient self-sufficiency rate of high-end new materials remains prominent.

According to the Report on Market Survey and Investment Suggestion Analysis of Domestic and Foreign Chemical Industry (2025-2030) released by Zhongyan Puhua Industry Research Institute, the industry has shifted from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement", and high-end new materials, green and low-carbon technologies, and intelligent transformation have become the three key directions to break through the current predicament.

1. Scale and Structure: Total Output Breakthrough and Intensified Differentiation

Total output value exceeding 19 trillion yuan: In 2025, the total output value of China's petrochemical industry reached 19.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with the growth rate rebounding by 3.1 percentage points compared with 2024. Among them, the revenue growth rate of the chemical new materials sector reached 8%, far exceeding the 3% of the traditional oil refining sector, becoming the core engine of the industry's growth.

Reconstruction of regional pattern: The proportion of revenue in the eastern coastal areas has dropped to 50%, while the central and western regions, relying on resource advantages (such as oil and gas fields in Xinjiang), have increased their proportion to 35%, forming a coordinated development pattern of "strong east and advancing west".

Reshuffling of enterprise pattern: The state-owned "Big Three Oil Companies" (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) account for 65% of the refining and chemical production capacity, but private enterprises account for more than 50% of the total number of enterprises. Enterprises such as Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical have seized the high-end market through the "integrated refining and chemical" model. The market share of CR4 (the top four enterprises) in the industry has increased from 53% in 2020 to 65%.

2. Costs and Profits: Dual Pressure from Declining Oil Prices and Narrowing Crack Spreads

Volatile decline in oil prices: In the first quarter of 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil was 74.98 US dollars per barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 8.29%. However, the Big Three Oil Companies achieved performance recovery through cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with their net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by only 6.83%, which was significantly better than the 8.8% year-on-year decline in the industry's total profit in 2024.

Narrowing crack spreads: In the first quarter of 2025, the average crack spreads of diesel/gasoline/kerosene were 1,001 yuan/1,523 yuan/1,434 yuan per ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of narrowing by 3.01%/widening by 5.15%/narrowing by 14.02%, leading to an intensified differentiation in the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises.

Premium of high-end products: The localization rate of metallocene polyolefins, high-end lubricating oils and other products has increased, replacing imported materials. For example, Satellite Chemical reduced the cost of ethylene by 2,000-3,000 yuan per ton through ethane cracking technology, and its gross profit margin increased to 1.8 times the industry average.

According to the Report on Market Survey and Investment Suggestion Analysis of Domestic and Foreign Chemical Industry (2025-2030) compiled by Zhongyan Puhua Research Institute:

II. Market Scale

1. Market Scale: Segmentation of 100-billion-yuan Tracks

Overall scale: In 2025, the global organic chemical market scale will exceed 480 billion US dollars, with China accounting for more than 35% and a self-sufficiency rate of 85%. Among them, the output value of chemical new materials is about 1.5 trillion yuan, the consumption volume exceeds 41 million tons, and the overall self-sufficiency rate is close to 79%.

Segmented fields:

New energy materials: The demand for lithium battery electrolyte additives and positive/negative electrode materials continues to surge. As a key component of electrolytes, lithium hexafluorophosphate saw its market price rise by more than 20% in 2024, with domestic total output exceeding 120,000 tons and a global market share of over 65%.

High-end polyolefins: General-purpose products (such as polyethylene and polypropylene) are facing overcapacity pressure of 78 million tons per year, while high-end grades (such as metallocene polyethylene) still rely on imports, with the self-sufficiency rate expected to reach 60% in 2025.

Environmentally friendly rubber additives: Benefiting from the growth of automobile production (the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 35% in 2024) and the drive of environmental protection policies, the proportion of environmentally friendly products will increase from 40% in 2024 to more than 50% in 2025.

III. Future Market Outlook: Four Trends Reshaping the Industry Pattern

1. Trend 1: Green Low-Carbon and Circular Economy

Carbon capture and hydrogen energy: CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage) demonstration projects are being accelerated, and the scale of the hydrogen energy industry chain is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan by 2030. The Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical project reduces emissions by 1 million tons annually, providing a model for the low-carbon development of the industry.

Bio-based materials: The production capacity of degradable materials such as PLA (Polylactic Acid) and PBAT (Polybutylene Adipate Terephthalate) is expanding. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) forces enterprises to improve energy efficiency standards, increasing export costs by 15%-20%.

Circular economy: Breakthroughs have been made in the chemical recycling technology of waste plastics. Wanhua Chemical has shortened the R&D cycle of new products by 60% through digital twin technology and increased the response speed of customer customization by 3 times.

2. Trend 2: Technological Integration and Innovation

AI-driven material revolution: Machine learning has shortened the R&D cycle of new materials from 5 years to 18 months, and the efficiency of high-throughput experiments has increased by 200 times. For example, the commercialization of carbon dioxide-to-polycarbonate technology has reduced carbon emissions by 65%.

Quantum computing-aided molecular design: It has increased the efficiency of catalysts by 70%, promoting technological breakthroughs in the field of fine chemicals.

Digital twin factories: They realize zero-inventory production, shorten the delivery cycle to 72 hours, and improve the operational efficiency of enterprises.

3. Trend 3: Globalization and Regional Restructuring

Expansion of international markets: Chinese enterprises are actively building 12 new production bases in Indonesia and Vietnam, and enhancing their global layout and competitiveness through mergers, acquisitions and cooperation.

Regional market restructuring: Southeast Asia has become a key battlefield, where Chinese enterprises compete with international giants in the fields of new energy materials and high-end chemicals.

Behind the total output value exceeding 19 trillion yuan lies the overcapacity of traditional refining and chemical production, the booming of high-end new materials, the increasing pressure of environmental protection, the breakthroughs in green technology, the intensified global competition, and the construction of technological barriers. Zhongyan Puhua Industry Research Institute believes that the next five years will be a critical stage for the chemical industry to move from "technological breakthrough" to "scenario explosion", and the market scale is expected to reach a higher level by 2030.